ranking the playOffs
wayward O will rank the playoff seeds based on the following formula: each of the eight teams involved has at least a 10% chance at the outset of winning the world series; so 80% of world series uncertainty is tied up at the outset. the remaining 20% will be alotted in the form of "certainty points" on a point-by-point basis to teams with one or more:
a) certified money pitchers (1% per)
b) position players capable of taking over a game (1% per) *
c) manager capable of dominating an outcome (1 %)
d) tangible home-field or other stated advantages (1%)
here's how wayward O doles out the added points:
angels: 10% + lackey 1% + escobar 1% + guerrerro 1%
cubs: 10% + soriano 1% + piniella 1%
diamondbacks: 10% + brandon webb + 1%
indians: 10% + sabathia 1% + best overall lineup 1%
phillies: 10% + rollins 1%
red sox: 10% + ortiz 1% + ramirez 1% + beckett 1% + fenway 1% + rest of lineup 1%
rockies: 10% + holliday 1% + coors field 1%
yankees: 10% + rodriguez 1% + rest of lineup 1% + yankee stadium 1 %
here are the raw seedings:
1) boston 15%
2, 3 - tie) yankees, angels 13%
4, 5, 6 - tie) cubs, indians, rockies 12%
7, 8 - tie ) phillies, diamondbacks 11%
and here are the adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:
1) boston
2) angels
3) yankees
4) indians
5) rockies
6) cubs
7) diamondbacks
8) phillies
here are your division series winners, based on this formula:
boston,
new york,
chicago,
colorado.
here is your world series winner, based on this formula:
boston
please place your bets accordingly.
* player must have a league-top batting average, minimum .295 and power to boot to earn a standout percentage point
a) certified money pitchers (1% per)
b) position players capable of taking over a game (1% per) *
c) manager capable of dominating an outcome (1 %)
d) tangible home-field or other stated advantages (1%)
here's how wayward O doles out the added points:
angels: 10% + lackey 1% + escobar 1% + guerrerro 1%
cubs: 10% + soriano 1% + piniella 1%
diamondbacks: 10% + brandon webb + 1%
indians: 10% + sabathia 1% + best overall lineup 1%
phillies: 10% + rollins 1%
red sox: 10% + ortiz 1% + ramirez 1% + beckett 1% + fenway 1% + rest of lineup 1%
rockies: 10% + holliday 1% + coors field 1%
yankees: 10% + rodriguez 1% + rest of lineup 1% + yankee stadium 1 %
here are the raw seedings:
1) boston 15%
2, 3 - tie) yankees, angels 13%
4, 5, 6 - tie) cubs, indians, rockies 12%
7, 8 - tie ) phillies, diamondbacks 11%
and here are the adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:
1) boston
2) angels
3) yankees
4) indians
5) rockies
6) cubs
7) diamondbacks
8) phillies
here are your division series winners, based on this formula:
boston,
new york,
chicago,
colorado.
here is your world series winner, based on this formula:
boston
please place your bets accordingly.
* player must have a league-top batting average, minimum .295 and power to boot to earn a standout percentage point
Labels: octOber

4 Comments:
Let's hope the NLCS isn't between Snakes and Rocks. Boring. Also - the predominance of the AL is astounding. I guess having a certified big bopper DH is better than that 25th utility player in the NL.
- Sponsort
it is a bit odd that top seeds are AL and bottom are NL ... i imagine that would change from year to year
give me $25 on the Expos
The whole thing is now a crapshoot; however, Boston is the strongest team, so I'll be sticking with them as my choice.
FOX must be squirming that the odds are not looking good for a Sox/Yankees ALCS matchup.
Good work on the blog, BTW -- it should be an interesting off-season for the Orioles.
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