ranking the playOffs, year 2

Last year Wayward O's patented certainty points system accurately predicted Red Sox v. Rockies World Series and its outcome. So this year, we'll try it again.

But keep in mind the system is not necessarily supposed to accurately pick the post-season; rather it's designed to acknowledge the randomness of October and hedge that randomness ever so slightly, which it does.

There's one major change this year. Last year we doled out the baseline points first, giving each team a 10% base chance of winning; this year we doled out the certainty points first, then calculated the baseline.

Going team-by-team, we uncovered a total of 22 certainty points.

That number was subtracted from 100 percent and the remainder -- 78 -- was doled evenly as the baseline score for each October team. This means certainty baseline is slightly lower for each team -- 9.75% -- than it was last year.

Calculating it that way removed the arbitrary nature of the baseline score, which arbitrary nature bothered Wayward O last year.

"Certainty points" go to teams with:
a) certified money pitchers (1% per)
b) position players capable of taking over a game (1% per)
c) a batting lineup or pitching rote that exceeds the norm (1%)
d) manager capable of influencing an outcome (1 %)
e) tangible home-field or other stated advantage (1%) *

Here's how Wayward O doles out the 2008 certainty points:
Angels: (4) Guerrerro, Scioscia, F. Rodriguez, rotation ... 9.75%+4% =13.75%
Brewers: (2) offense, Sabathia .... 9.75%+2%=11.75%
Cubs: (4) Dempster, offense, Piniella, Wrigley .... 9.75%+4% =13.75%
Dodgers: (1) M. Ramirez .... 9.75%+1%=10.75%
Phillies: (3) Utley, rest of offense, Lidge .... 9.75%+3%=12.75%
Rays: (2) offense, the Trop .... 9.75%+2%=11.75%
Red Sox: (5) Youkilis, rest of offense, Fenway, Matzusaka, Papelbon .... 9.75%+5%=14.75%
Twins: (3) Morneau, Dome, Nathan .... 9.75%+3%=12.75% **
White Sox: (1) Jenks .... 9.75%+1%=10.75%

So here are the raw seedings:
1) Red Sox
2,3 tie) Angels, Cubs
4) Phillies
5,6 tie) Brewers, Rays
7,8 tie) Dodgers, White Sox

Here are the adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:

1) Red Sox
2) Angels
3) Cubs
4) Phillies
5) Rays
6) Brewers
7) White Sox
8) Dodgers

Here are your division series winners, based on this formula:
Red Sox
Rays
Cubs
Phillies

and here is your (repeat) world series winner, based on this formula:
Red Sox (over Cubs)

please place your bets accordingly.

*How do you earn a certainty point?

On offense you have to have a minimum .295 BA, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs (with tiny exceptions to the average category if other stats are there -- such as Chase Utley this year).

If you are a pitcher you must have a sub 3.00 ERA and a +10 win total or a high saves total (this year Sabathia is an exception with a +7 win total but an 11-2 record since moving to Milwaukee).

If you are a manager you must have demonstrated an ability to turn a team around based solely on your presence.

A few ballparks earn certainty points based on widely acknowledged advantages conferred to the home team. (The Trop has been a house of horrors for visiting teams this year so it was added though it's a bit of an exception given the Rays' futility until this year.)

An offense or starting staff can also earn a certainty point en masse if overall performance broadly exceeds the league norm.

(Wayward O was very tempted to give the Red Sox an extra certainty point for Ortiz but did not because his average slipped to an earthly .264. Anyway, it wouldn't have affected the overall rankings.)

** We did the Twins certainty points b/c of the play-in, which isn't even over yet, but we mistakenly published too early. Chisox currently lead 1-0 in the ninth. Let's hope this isn't a curse in the making. 9:57 p.m. ET update ... Chisox advance.