ranking the playOffs, year 2

Last year Wayward O's patented certainty points system accurately predicted Red Sox v. Rockies World Series and its outcome. So this year, we'll try it again.

But keep in mind the system is not necessarily supposed to accurately pick the post-season; rather it's designed to acknowledge the randomness of October and hedge that randomness ever so slightly, which it does.

There's one major change this year. Last year we doled out the baseline points first, giving each team a 10% base chance of winning; this year we doled out the certainty points first, then calculated the baseline.

Going team-by-team, we uncovered a total of 22 certainty points.

That number was subtracted from 100 percent and the remainder -- 78 -- was doled evenly as the baseline score for each October team. This means certainty baseline is slightly lower for each team -- 9.75% -- than it was last year.

Calculating it that way removed the arbitrary nature of the baseline score, which arbitrary nature bothered Wayward O last year.

"Certainty points" go to teams with:
a) certified money pitchers (1% per)
b) position players capable of taking over a game (1% per)
c) a batting lineup or pitching rote that exceeds the norm (1%)
d) manager capable of influencing an outcome (1 %)
e) tangible home-field or other stated advantage (1%) *

Here's how Wayward O doles out the 2008 certainty points:
Angels: (4) Guerrerro, Scioscia, F. Rodriguez, rotation ... 9.75%+4% =13.75%
Brewers: (2) offense, Sabathia .... 9.75%+2%=11.75%
Cubs: (4) Dempster, offense, Piniella, Wrigley .... 9.75%+4% =13.75%
Dodgers: (1) M. Ramirez .... 9.75%+1%=10.75%
Phillies: (3) Utley, rest of offense, Lidge .... 9.75%+3%=12.75%
Rays: (2) offense, the Trop .... 9.75%+2%=11.75%
Red Sox: (5) Youkilis, rest of offense, Fenway, Matzusaka, Papelbon .... 9.75%+5%=14.75%
Twins: (3) Morneau, Dome, Nathan .... 9.75%+3%=12.75% **
White Sox: (1) Jenks .... 9.75%+1%=10.75%

So here are the raw seedings:
1) Red Sox
2,3 tie) Angels, Cubs
4) Phillies
5,6 tie) Brewers, Rays
7,8 tie) Dodgers, White Sox

Here are the adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:

1) Red Sox
2) Angels
3) Cubs
4) Phillies
5) Rays
6) Brewers
7) White Sox
8) Dodgers

Here are your division series winners, based on this formula:
Red Sox
Rays
Cubs
Phillies

and here is your (repeat) world series winner, based on this formula:
Red Sox (over Cubs)

please place your bets accordingly.

*How do you earn a certainty point?

On offense you have to have a minimum .295 BA, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs (with tiny exceptions to the average category if other stats are there -- such as Chase Utley this year).

If you are a pitcher you must have a sub 3.00 ERA and a +10 win total or a high saves total (this year Sabathia is an exception with a +7 win total but an 11-2 record since moving to Milwaukee).

If you are a manager you must have demonstrated an ability to turn a team around based solely on your presence.

A few ballparks earn certainty points based on widely acknowledged advantages conferred to the home team. (The Trop has been a house of horrors for visiting teams this year so it was added though it's a bit of an exception given the Rays' futility until this year.)

An offense or starting staff can also earn a certainty point en masse if overall performance broadly exceeds the league norm.

(Wayward O was very tempted to give the Red Sox an extra certainty point for Ortiz but did not because his average slipped to an earthly .264. Anyway, it wouldn't have affected the overall rankings.)

** We did the Twins certainty points b/c of the play-in, which isn't even over yet, but we mistakenly published too early. Chisox currently lead 1-0 in the ninth. Let's hope this isn't a curse in the making. 9:57 p.m. ET update ... Chisox advance.

grading the predictiOns

we stopped writing about dumb team about two weeks ago because it became .... not painful but just dumb. dumb orioles losing dumb games by the dozen in september. that should change soon. maybe. if things go as planned.

and if you want to read all the accolades for mike mussina's 20th win make sure you check out all his fanbois over at camdenchat. they've forgiven, forgotten, rationalized and stockholm syndromed their way into complete submission.

anyway now we gotta move fast .... no endless weeks of hype & hiatus between reg. season and playoffs in this sport. we've got some recaps and postmortems and we're preparing year 2 of our uncannily accurate "certainty points-based" playoff predictions for tomorrow hopefully.

but first, it looks like our playoffs are basically set ... with the chisox beating detroit (and officially sending tigers into last place) we've got a play-in game! but we're close enough. let's have a look, division by division, at Wayward O's pre-season picks (see hyperlinks) and grade them:

AL East: Hmmm. Let's see. We said Yankees would be "on outside looking in." Check. We said Red Sox were best team in division. Wrong (but they did make playoffs and might be best team in MLB, the AL East weirdness notwithstanding.) We liked the Jays in second but they came in fourth. We made no specific prediction about Rays except to say they'd be better. We said team would finish last. Grade: B C

AL Central: We said Tigers would come in first. They came in last. We discounted the Twins but they will play a play-in vs. Chisox. We liked the Indians at least to sniff the wild card. We liked the Chisox to contend -- not a sexy pick in pre-season. We accurately foresaw the Royale improving a little Overall this one was a mess but there were a few predictive bright spots. Grade: D+

AL West: We liked the Angels to win (duh). We liked the Mariners to contend a little for the Wild Card but noted they were over-rated. We also predicted issues with Ichiro in CF and sure enough he's back in RF. We foresaw Texas & Oakland in the junk pile. Grade: B+

NL East: We picked the Braves? Hideous. In our defense however we were trying to hit a long-shot, so to speak. And the B's did look good on paper until you remember what a bust Mike Hampton really is. We foresaw the Mets contending and the Phillies contending for Wild Card. Instead Phils won the division. We vastly under-rated the Marlins and pretty much got the Nats right. Grade: D

NL Central: Friends, we picked the order of finish in this six-team division exactly. And you could look it up. Just click the linky there. We also had the Brewers going to the post-season and hinted at the firing of the manager, and though we didn't read the Ned Yost tea leaves exactly, it was still an uncanny predictive display. Grade: A+

NL West: We and everyone had the D'Backs winning. Ehhh! We over-rated the Padres. But we did correctly predict the Colorado fall-off, writing Was 2007 a bit of a fluke? Yeah. Yeah it was. And we did have the Dodgers contending minus Manny. Nice job overall sorta. Grade: B-

Overall Grade: B ... one of the more depressing grades you can get. you kind of half-heartedly tried and in retrospect you'd be happier with a C if only you'd stayed up and partied instead of cramming. anyway .... if chisox beat twins tomorrow and sneak in bump it up to a B+ yeah i know that's a pretty friendly grade.

adiOs...

Bye Bye

heartbreak On wheels

in a woooorld where blogging is a chore, one blogger stood alone....

thanks to reader anon e. mouse for the winning caption entry! simple yet elegant. timelessly witty.


now for a bulleted list of things wayward O is watching for & thinking as season winds down:

• team is serious about locking up (locking down?) b-rob and the young savior. now is not a time for chintzy! make them rich & happy and team will benefit
• aubrey is the answer next year at 1b
• we gotta let danny cabs have one more shot next year as sorry a sack as he is
• the brew crew is heartbreak on wheels
• somebody must stop mike moose-tina from his 20 win season. i wish it could be team but it appears pettitte will start sunday although there were rumours of a mussina start
• there is speculation the bedard might again be a member of team. is that good? figuring that out is above wayward o's pay grade
• that was a hella catch by that yankee CF last night to rob luuuuke. wayward o has comletely reversed course on luuuke btw. ok so he thinks god created the dinosaurs last week ... if you really think about it, there's nothing to disprove that assertion, provided you don't you know care about facts
• wayward o has been to 50 or so games at l'estada de Janqui. and he will grudgingly miss the place
• the Rays will get knocked out of the postseason quick-like (that's hope talking)

PS. postseason previews and regular season post mOrtem coming soon!

dOne

don't take it from wayward O .... take it from johnny damon, chief among the dozen or so traitors who comprise the pinstriped allstars

“It’s going to be a bit strange, because we definitely thought we would be
pushing for a playoff spot,” Johnny Damon said. “But we owe it to the fans and
the Stadium to go out there and play hard. There’s definitely some pride aspects
to go out and play for.” [NYT]

get out there and play for pride ... very proud to be member of a $200 million bust!

we are Officially in the tank

team gave up 14, 10, 10, 7 and 14 runs in losing last five games.

that's a full trip through the ragged remains of the battered rote.

it took about a month longer than anticipated, but the collapse is here.

and the lost season is upon us with a fury!

the caption contest is a toughie; it remains open (see below). and thanks for entries so far.

9/30: Here is funny previous poll for old times' sake...