happy hallOween

Looks like good ol' Sammy Perlozzo found costume!


Image via FOX
Hey Sammy -- DON'T PULL GUTHRIE, OK?

Nevermind....

If Wayward O had his druthers, which he does not ... have ... he'd go as this guy:


Image via MASN

Or maybe a Memlo Hobo.

ez mOney manny

think manny will opt out of $20 million deal for 2010? you know, and re-test market?


Image via LA Times
why should he? he can behave how he likes and joe torre will do his best to find flimsy reasons why ramirez just a reguluh guy.

on bright side, they have some of world's top clubhouse cancer screening clinics in so cal.

certainty vs. cOntingency

Mighta Wayward O shoulda given Dodgers certainty point for set-up man, who chalked up a .65 ERA in 30 appearances post-trade and a 1.70 for year? And which set-up man figured mightly in Blues' win over RedBirds? Or at very least awarded omnibus "rest of staff" certainty point for L.A.?

Probably. That would have made L.A. favorite over St. Louis Cards given better regular-season record.

So .... Wayward O's bad.

Then again, that's October baseball -- especially in first round. And there's nuttin' nobody is going to do about stuff like this:


Image via MLB.com
And this:


Image via Boston.com
Boston-Angels series also reminds Wayward O ... should there be some codified certainty point for having home field for first two games of a five-game, first-round series? This year home-field teams swept divisional series, losing only one of eight home games at series' outsets.

Have to look at entire sweep of divisional series to be sure '09 wasn't fluke.

Well dear reader, this is by way of saying: Wayward O will continue to massage turkey until it's as juicy and delicious as possible. But overall, Blog is still quite pleased with System.

ranking the playOffs, year 3

If you are unfamiliar with Wayward O's system for seeding MLB Playoffs, Wayward O recommends having a look at last year's entry, which explains system. Year one's rankings predicted World Series matchup and outcome with uncanny precision; year two did not result in a predictive World Series Matchup.

On to Year Three!

Going team-by-team, we uncovered a total of 22 certainty points.

That number was subtracted from 100 percent and remainder -- 78 percent -- was doled evenly as baseline score for each October team. This means certainty baseline for each playoff team is 9.75% (like last year).

Here's how Wayward O doles out 2009 certainty points:

Angels: (2) Morales, offense ... 9.75% + 2% = 11.75%
Cardinals: (4) Pujols, Wainright, Carpenter, Franklin ... 9.75% + 4% = 13.75%
Dodgers: (3) Ramirez*, Broxton, Torre ... 9.75% + 3% = 12.75%
Phillies: (1) offense ... 9.75% + 1% = 10.75%
Red Sox: (3) 54+ home wins, offense, Jonathan Papelbon ... 9.75% + 3% = 12.75%
Rockies: (1) Coors Field ... 9.75% + 1% = 10.75%
Tigers: (1) Miguel Cabrera ... 9.75% + 1% = 10.75%**
Twins: (3) Morneau, Nathan, Metrodome ... 9.75% + 3% = 12.75%
Yankees: (5) Teixeira, offense, Rivera, rotation, 54+ home wins ... 9.75% + 5% = 14.75%

(Right now at 8:07 p.m. Eastern Wayward O is waiting on result of Tigers at Twins play-in game. So, while we have time, maybe you are wondering how many certainty points Team would have had this year. This answer is zero, though George Sherill, were he still on Team, would have projected to a certainty point with high saves total and sub-3 ERA.)

9:48 p.m. EDT, OK, sorry Tigers. Sorry Aubrey Huff. You're out.

So here are the raw seedings:

1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3,4,5 tie) Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins
6) Angels
7,8 tie) Phillies, Rockies

Here are adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:

1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Red Sox
4) Dodgers (same record as Red Sox, but worse home record)
5) Twins
6) Angels
7) Phillies
8) Rockies

Here are your divsion series winners, based on this formula:

Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox and Phillies

And your World Series outcome:

Yankees over Cardinals

Keep in mind this system isn't necessary supposed to pick locks. It is supposed to be an acknowledgement that October baseball is a bit random while still respecting key factors that could affect outcome of playoffs.

* projects to a certainty point for 162-game season

** eliminated in 1-game play-in


How do you earn a certainty point?

On offense you have to have a minimum .295 BA, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs (with minor exceptions granted in the average category if other stats are there -- such as Mark Teixeira this year).

If you are a pitcher you must have a sub 3.00 ERA and a +10 win total or a high saves total.

An offense or starting staff can also earn a certainty point en masse if overall performance markedly exceeds the league norm.

A team can earn a certainty point if it has 54 or more home wins for season or if there is a tangible home field advantage for a team's home park (such as the Twins, who as Wayward O types this are in extra with Tigers.)

Managers, too, can earn a certainty point for their team. Said manager must have demonstrated an ability to help a team succeed based solely on his presence. This is by far the most subjective and possibly controversial category in with a certainty point can be earned. This year one manager, Joe Torre, qualified.

'it's been sO many years'

Sun Photo

grading the predictiOns

It is exceedingly weird that October is here and playoffs are not. As Wayward O's fourteen readers know, Wayward O makes very concrete and non-wishy washy playoff predictions in March. Here's how Blog did this year:

AL East: We said Yankees would "pile up the wins" and Boston would finish second and be in Wild Card mix. Check. And Check. Yankees did not exactly sneak up on anybody but a lot of folks were wary about how good they would be. Wayward O was not. Blog also correctly said Tampa Bay would fade and finish third. We picked the Blue Jays for last but noted they are "probably better than" Team, who we generously picked to finish fourth. Blog was far too generous in allowing Team a chance to finish at .500 but, aside from this essentially irrelevant detail, we lined up division with precision. Grade: A

AL Center: Only thing that doesn't stink about Site's predictions for this division is Site picked Twins to finish second. And even that isn't set in stone as of yet. Note to KC Royals: We kind of knew you were going to stink but we took a flyer based on previous improvements last couple of seasons and gave you a chance. Don't look for such magnanimity again from Wayward O! Look for ignOminity! Further compounding futility of Blog's picks is Tigers' return to playoff contention, which Site did not augur for some stultifying reason. They were supposed to do that last year. Grade: Flunk

AL West: Blog liked Angels to win division. Checkity. That counts for something. But Blog gave As way too much credit for off-season moves. Heck, Matt Holliday isn't even there anymore is he? Or something. We were right, however, that future of As has been distraction and attendance has suffered. We had Seattle and Texas bottom-feeding and those two made nice showings. As of press time, three of four AL West teams were on track to finish above .500 mark. When was the last time that happened? Grade: C

NL East: Blog picked Mets to win, but Mets Blog picked did not actually take field. So. That's a sort of a pass, EXCEPT Blog foresaw big Mets injuries in 2008 but did not repeat prediction for 2009. So really kind of a mild fail, in a weird, metaphysical way. Possible worlds and what-not. Blog picked Phillies to finish second so it stands to reason that Phillies would Phind selves in first with Mets as non-factor. Blog had Marlins and Braves in middle of pack -- right where they are -- and Nats bringing up the rear. Grade: B

NL Center: Like AL Center prognostications, Blog took some risks here. Blog said Cubs would finish first and liked Reds and Cardinals to contend for Wild Card. So -- bad. However, Blog did accurately predict 2008 October darlings Milwaukee would fade down stretch. Blog also saw Astros underperforming. And Pirates in basement. Could have been worse but Blog can't give self pass for again over-predicting Cubs and underpredicting Cards. Grade: D

NL West: Blog liked Dodgers to walk away with division. Which they did until they kind of took foot off gas pedal in recent weeks. Blog predicted Giants would improve. Figuring they'd keep their staff on field and find a bat, Blog saw Diamondbacks contending for a Wild Card. Diamondbacks have in fact been quite bad (they did lose Brandon Webb for season) and have not shown ability to keep key pieces of puzzle together. Blog did NOT foresee another Rocky Mountain playoff high. Grade: C+

PLAYOFF BERTHS: Blog accurately picked three of six division winners -- Yankees, Dodgers and Angels -- and made accurate allowance for one 2009 Wild Card team. Blog did NOT have Colorado in mix. Blog made some canny observations about season but also made some wild swings that did not connect. Overall Grade ...... you tell Wayward O in comments.

2010: meaningful imprOvement

It is good for Team to have Boss of Team who runs Team in open, tough and fair way. For example, Mr. Andy MacPhail shook Manager's hand yesterday, gave him the rock, and then said you better win some ballgames next year.

It is also good for Blog to have boss of Team who nicknames 2010 season in October 2009, saving Wayward O ENTIRE WINTER of tortured musings and nightmares that blog is under attack by swarm of Capital "O"s.


Image via MASN
Some of Mr. MacPhail's remarks, upon picking up of manager for next year, were instructive for fans of Team:

"We're out of phase one now, going forward."

"We're going to move back to the more traditional criteria of evaluating managers: wins and losses."

"To give him every chance, going forward, and to win as many games as we can and show meaningful improvement in the standings ... it's our job to ... give him as much help as we possibly can."

Mr. Bossman has already tipped hat a little bit this year, saying he'll guard his prized Kids like a Momma Bear guarding Cub but won't be shy about going to Ol Man Angelos for free agent money to fill in some glaring holes.

"I understand very clearly what it's all about," Mr. Dave Trembley said.

Note to Players: Don't expect to be "shut down" or "protected" next year. Produce or GTFO. Corollary note to any players that don't like manager: You can't get rid of Trembley by losing games, so you might as well try to win.

It is sad Pardon Our Dust phase is coming to close. Sad in the same way the passage of time is said all by its lonesome.


Also how about that Little Aubrey guy? He wants to play baseball and he sees opportunity to play baseball and he is making most of said opportunity to play baseball!