grading the predictiOns

It is exceedingly weird that October is here and playoffs are not. As Wayward O's fourteen readers know, Wayward O makes very concrete and non-wishy washy playoff predictions in March. Here's how Blog did this year:

AL East: We said Yankees would "pile up the wins" and Boston would finish second and be in Wild Card mix. Check. And Check. Yankees did not exactly sneak up on anybody but a lot of folks were wary about how good they would be. Wayward O was not. Blog also correctly said Tampa Bay would fade and finish third. We picked the Blue Jays for last but noted they are "probably better than" Team, who we generously picked to finish fourth. Blog was far too generous in allowing Team a chance to finish at .500 but, aside from this essentially irrelevant detail, we lined up division with precision. Grade: A

AL Center: Only thing that doesn't stink about Site's predictions for this division is Site picked Twins to finish second. And even that isn't set in stone as of yet. Note to KC Royals: We kind of knew you were going to stink but we took a flyer based on previous improvements last couple of seasons and gave you a chance. Don't look for such magnanimity again from Wayward O! Look for ignOminity! Further compounding futility of Blog's picks is Tigers' return to playoff contention, which Site did not augur for some stultifying reason. They were supposed to do that last year. Grade: Flunk

AL West: Blog liked Angels to win division. Checkity. That counts for something. But Blog gave As way too much credit for off-season moves. Heck, Matt Holliday isn't even there anymore is he? Or something. We were right, however, that future of As has been distraction and attendance has suffered. We had Seattle and Texas bottom-feeding and those two made nice showings. As of press time, three of four AL West teams were on track to finish above .500 mark. When was the last time that happened? Grade: C

NL East: Blog picked Mets to win, but Mets Blog picked did not actually take field. So. That's a sort of a pass, EXCEPT Blog foresaw big Mets injuries in 2008 but did not repeat prediction for 2009. So really kind of a mild fail, in a weird, metaphysical way. Possible worlds and what-not. Blog picked Phillies to finish second so it stands to reason that Phillies would Phind selves in first with Mets as non-factor. Blog had Marlins and Braves in middle of pack -- right where they are -- and Nats bringing up the rear. Grade: B

NL Center: Like AL Center prognostications, Blog took some risks here. Blog said Cubs would finish first and liked Reds and Cardinals to contend for Wild Card. So -- bad. However, Blog did accurately predict 2008 October darlings Milwaukee would fade down stretch. Blog also saw Astros underperforming. And Pirates in basement. Could have been worse but Blog can't give self pass for again over-predicting Cubs and underpredicting Cards. Grade: D

NL West: Blog liked Dodgers to walk away with division. Which they did until they kind of took foot off gas pedal in recent weeks. Blog predicted Giants would improve. Figuring they'd keep their staff on field and find a bat, Blog saw Diamondbacks contending for a Wild Card. Diamondbacks have in fact been quite bad (they did lose Brandon Webb for season) and have not shown ability to keep key pieces of puzzle together. Blog did NOT foresee another Rocky Mountain playoff high. Grade: C+

PLAYOFF BERTHS: Blog accurately picked three of six division winners -- Yankees, Dodgers and Angels -- and made accurate allowance for one 2009 Wild Card team. Blog did NOT have Colorado in mix. Blog made some canny observations about season but also made some wild swings that did not connect. Overall Grade ...... you tell Wayward O in comments.

2k9 mlb playOffs preview

Well Wayward O's team by team analysis is done. After re-reading it, it appears only to be semi-terrible. So we will make October picks therefrom. Let's see what we came up with....

AL Division Winners -
Central: Royals (last year: Tigers)
East: Yankees (last year: Red Sox)
West: Angels (last year: Angels)

AL Wild Card -
As, with Red Sox and Rays in mix
(Last year: White Sox, with Mariners and Indians in mix)

NL Division Winners -
Central: Cubs (Last year: Cubs)
East: Mets (Last year: Braves)
West: Dodgers (Last year: Diamondbacks)

NL Wild Card -
Reds, with Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Phillies in mix
(Last year: Dodgers, with Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Padres in mix)

ALCS -
Angels beat Royals

NLCS -
Mets beat Cubs

Your World Series Champion -
Mets? Angels? Who knows???

AL MVP - Not sure. Maybe Longoria from Rays. Markakis has a shot.

NL MVP - David Wright.

Cy Youngs - Who am I, Nostradamus?

2k9 divisiOnal preview - AL East

Ahhh .... the AL East. The AL East ... it is so very hard for Wayward O to write about the AL East. Wayward O spends most waking mOments looking for bunk reasons why Team will win and goes out of his way to make up bunk reasons why Yankees shall lose.

But this time of year -- every March -- Wayward O gives his UNVARNISHED baseball opinion of division Team calls home ....

BALTIMORE ORIOLES: Team has upgraded over last two years at every defensive position and has best defensive outfield in AL. In fact, Nick Markakis in RF is going to put up MVP-caliber numbers this year if he can control his Ks, which he will might. Team also will have little trouble scoring runs and has a stronger bullpen -- not to mention an extra closer which translates into trade leverage. But .... BUT .... the starting rotation is just completely untested and potentially lacks talent in the four, five holes. What's it all mean? .500 is possible this year and likely next year. And if somehow the starting pitching exceeds expectations, well stranger things have happened...

BOSTON RED SOX: The Barston Red Sarwx are a fine squad and they could win division unless there is some cosmic anti-smugness force we don't know about that strikes them down for their aforementioned rampant smugness. It's more or less the same squad as late last year except no Manny. How on earth, I ask again, did the Pirates let Jason Bay end up in Boston? Let's see if Hideki Okajima and Dice-K can keep up the torrid results in their sophomore campaigns. Dice-K probably will ... the Red Sox infield injury woes could additionally hurt the team but it's looking like Pedroia, Youkilis and Lugo will all be ready to go by early in the season.

NEW YORK YANKEES: The New York Yankees have 47 starting pitchers, 62 first basemen and 5 million bandwagon fans to compliment their 5 million true fans, who have begun to wonder just what the strategy in the Bronx is and whether the current leadership is ... sane. How will Brett Gardner do in CF this year? Wayward O has a funny feeling the guy was born to play the position for the Pinstripes. It's easy to see this this team piling up the wins, with or without the dopey 3rd baseman they call A-Rod. Too many things would have to go wrong for this much free agent talent all to go bust at once.

TAMPA BAY RAYS: The world of baseball had trouble taking the Rays seriously last year. Wayward O still has that problem. But the Trop is a house of horrors for visiting teams. As long as they've got the swagger and the home court advantage, they have a shot at the winning seasons. Is Troy Percival still the elite closer he once was? Nopes. But he and the rote are good enough. And they still have the bats + additional power in Pat Burrell.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS: They let A.J. Burnett go to an in-division competitor in the Yankees. Do they know something the Yankees don't? Mayyybe. Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan also are out for foreseeable future and B.J. Ryan is arguably shredded wheat. That all translates to a significantly weaker pitching staff. The Blue Jays are probably better than Team but I'm picking them for last place anyway. Sue me.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Yankees
Red Sox *
Rays *
Team
Blue Jays

* wild card contenderz

2k9 divisiOnal preview - NL East

Here is straight dope on NL East, son.

ATLANTA BRAVES: Best 2008 rotation ever -- on paper -- turned out to be a bust. Now they've got a whole new cast of characters in the rote led by serviceable pickups Derrick Lowe and Javier Vasquez. But the offense just doesn't look like it's got the talent to hang with the big boys in the division. Is starting RHP Jair Francoise Jurrjens the real deal? He put up a 13-10 with a 3.68 for the struggling squad last year. SUPERPALOOKA PREDICTO BONUS: If Yankee disarray at third base continues late in 2009 with A-Rod hip struggles, you might see Chipper Jones manning the hot corner in the Bronx by late July.

FLORIDA MARLINS: Last year we wrote 'em off and they won 86 games, finishing in third place. This year we see 'em wining 86 games and finishing in third place -- again -- behind Mets and Phils. What are the notoriously cheap Marlins going to do about signing Dan Uggla and will they hold onto Hanley Ramirez as his backloaded contract starts to kick in with big dollars?

NEW YORK METS: Wayward O thinks David Wright is on his way to an NL MVP award this year. But Johan Santana's arm is tenderer than the chipped beef at Katz's deli and John Maine is stinking it up this spring. What's going on with the starting rotation? If the Santana injury is minor and the slow starts are just that, then you'll be seeing the Mets in the playoffs ... after two years of hideous September chokage. If they get there the Mets are set for a World Series berth behind Johan, Wright and K-Rod and set-up man J.J. Putz.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: The champs are bringing back their team except for Pat Burrell, who has adequately been replaced by Raul Ibanez. But their big-game pitcher, Cole Hamels, appears to be hurt, getting shots in his elbow and whatnot. How hurt is he? As goes Cole, so go their hopes for another October run. Meanwhile Jamie Moyer inches ever-closer to punching his HoF ticket, quite possibly on the first ballot.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS: After a hideous offseason for former GM and some weirdish offseason moves, the Nats actually seem to have a decent offense taking the field. The defense is a mystery. But it's just going to be a long, walk-filled season because of their listless starting rotation, which includes the nigh-on-unwatchable Big Bird, aka Daniel Cabrera. I'd take John Lannan on almost any rotation but not sure he's a No. 1 starter except for Narts. Can they stay out of the basement? They have a shot at 4th or even 3rd place if Marlins have fire sale and/or Braves go in tank.

Predicted Order of Finish
MetsPhillies *MarlinsBravesNationals
* wild card contenders

2k9 divisiOnal preview - AL Central

So far the predictions have pretty much been right down the middle. But Wayward O says the AL Central contains the big surprise for 2009....

CHICAGO WHITE SOX: The White Sox are a much-changed team since last year. The left side of the infield, Alexei Ramirez (moving over from 2nd) to replace Orlando Hudson and young Josh Fields replacing Joe Crede should be serviceable if not stellar. Brian Anderson rounds out the youth movement, talking over in CF. And of course between Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye - baseball's most underrated player - the power should be there. Can Bartolo Colon return to the mound and have a healthy 2009?

CLEVELAND INDIANS: Cleveland has major rotation questions but they have the masterful Cliff Lee at the top. That's a good start. Will the real Fausto Carmona please stand up? Young Anthony Reyes may also prove to be a surprise for the Tribe. They had better not be relying upon Carl Pavano ... that's for dang sure. I see another struggle with mediocrity in 2009 as rotation uncertainty prevails and Travis Hafner comes back from surgery.

DETROIT TIGERS: What the heck has happened to Dontrelle Willis and Justin Verlander? The latter can be called a classic sophomore slump but the former remains a mystery. With Kenny Rogers, er, going, going ... gone, this team, which at this time last year looked massive, seems like it's got too many pitching questions to really have a big year. Of course last year Wayward O predicted a World Series berth and they ended up in the cellar so whatever...

KANSAS CITY ROYALE: Their middle infielders hit .300 last year. Their corner infielders hit for power. They have a solid starting five -- with SIDNEY PONSON waiting in the wings -- and a talented young closer. They upgraded in CF with Coco Crisp and in RF with Jose Guillen. This team has improved its win totals each of the last four years. Are the Royals ready for prime time? Bygod YES! They're going to steal the AL Central in a classic September battle.

MINNESOTA TWINS: The Minnesotans are bringing back their entire young starting five and their closer - really the whole team - a team that came within one run of the 2008 post-season. That's a recipe for a lot of wins. And they upgraded defensively at third base, snagging Joe Crede from the White Sox. But how is Joe Mauer's sacroiliac? Team won't thrive without its MVP, backstop and best hitter. Don't look for him in the lineup on opening day.


Predicted Order of Finish:
Royals #
TwinsWhite Sox
Tigers Indians

# there, i said it, the Royals are going to the playoffs!

2k9 divisiOnal preview - NL Central

a question for each team in the very intriguing, talented NL Central ... which continues to have six teams in a glaring example of gross unfairness when you consider how the AL West is, by comparison, a cake-walk for the Angels

CHICAGO CUBS: This is really the same squad that took the field in 2008, with Rich Harden and the coveted Sean Marshall filling out a great starting five. Can Carlos Marmol step up as the closer? It's a big question and although this division, with six teams, is hard to gauge, it is hard to see how Cubs won't be right there in late September. The team also has talent to spare and could trade for a closer should it become necessary.

CINCINNATI REDS: A lot of talent. A potentially excellent starting rote. A decent closer. Can young Jay Bruce pick up the slack and replace the departed Adam Dunn's power totals? Wayward O sees outfield -- young corner outfielders Bruce and Chris Dickerson and a mediocre Willy Taveras in CF -- as a down-the-stretch liability that may cost 'em a playoff berth. The Reds have a very good shot at .500+ for season if things go right. And if things go really right they'll be a big story this summer.

HOUSTON ASTROS: Will Miguel Tejada and Mike Hampton's stats continue their respective precipitous declines? Yes. BONUS QUESTION: Is soon-to-be 'Stro Pudge Rodriguez on that list of 100+ players who used steroids? Dunno. They could be real good. But they could be real bad. They'll end up in the middle. Prediction: There will be at least one clubhouse scuffle.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS: They are bringing back a powerful lineup and decent defense. But the team's starting five lost two of its stalwarts in Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia. Can Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush and Seth McClung pick up the slack? Nope. I see a team that scores a lot of runs but gives up even more. I see a team fading down the stretch and finishing under .500.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES: The galleon is leaking, the sails are tattered, the coffers are spent and the first mate is drunk. Can this ragtag band of scallywaggers scrap its way out of the bilge tank? ARrrrrrr. Not likely matey. In this loaded division they'll be in the hold, face down in the bungwater all summer. They really should have found a way to keep Jason Bay.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: Amazing. Last year 86 wins was only good for 4th in the NL Central. Little has changed with this team, except this year 86-88 wins will be good for third -- or maybe second if the Reds don't materialize. Who is the closer? Could be Christopher Ralph (Mercedes) Perez.

Predicted Order of Finish:
CubsReds *Cardinals *AstrosBrewers Pie Rats
* wild card contender

2k9 divisiOnal preview - AL West

a question for each team:

L.A. ANGELS: The perennial playoff contenders appear to be on track to again make an October run. Can Brian Fuentes match the great K-Rod in closer role? Yes. Yes he can. Close enough, anyway. The team loses some offensive punch without Mark Teixeira but addition of Bobby Abreu should mitigate that. This team isn't as loaded, but it's loaded enough.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS: Easily one of the more fascinating offseasons in MLB. The new-look As are rolling out an offense that includes Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday every day and they also have Nomar Garciaparra and Jack Cust to provide extra punch. Is Justin Duchscherer healthy? Not clear but Oakland always seems to get uncanny pitching. If that trend continues -- young Trevor Cahill is waiting in the wings -- they have the bats for a run at the Wild Card. BONUS QUESTION: Will team's desire to depart Oakland be a distraction? Maybe.

SEATTLE MARINERS: Erik Bedard's butt hurts already and he's taking himself out of games. Will he ever be anything but a distraction? Yes, once he signs a massive free agent deal, goes out and blows out his arm and never plays again. Great pitcher though. Still - the Ms have a talented team on paper and it's hard to imagine them losing 100 games again this year. Ken Griffey Jr. will be a nice distraction for fans, however, as playoff hopes disappear by early September.

TEXAS RANGERS: Currently the team's CF depth chart goes like this: Josh Hamilton, Andruw Jones, Marlon Byrd. Well Hamilton is playing somewhere, what about Jones? It would be nice to see AJ reprise his former glory from Altanta years but overall the Rangers seem adrift (again) and with no major pitching upgrades they're (again) on outside looking in. They are excited about a young catcher named Taylor Teagarden, who apparently can hit. But hitting has never been Texas' problem.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Angels
Athletics*Mariners
Rangers
* wild card contender

2k9 divisiOnal preview -- NL West

it is time for Wayward O's annual look around the MLB & question for each team & 2009 predictions! this is exciting. this is scintillating. this is nifty!

and now, without further ado, a question for each team in NL West...

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: The acquisition of Jon Garland -- and a healthier Doug Davis --should make team's pitching even stronger. But where is the 100-RBI man? The D-backs had nonesuch last year on way to 82-80 finish. Still if Garland puts up a 14-8, like he did in 2008 for Angels, that would put D-backs at 88-74.

COLORADO ROCKIES: Team lost its best hitter as Matt Holliday left for Oakland. Can young Garry Smith pick up the slack in LF? Doubtful. A tip of the cap, however, to career Rocks pitcher Aaron Cook who has a lifetime sub-4 ERA and went 16-9 last year in a hitter-friendly park. For team to be successful they will need aging Todd Helton to rebound after back surgery late last year -- after a season in which his numbers fell off a cliff. BONUS QUESTION: Is Huston Street as good a closer as Brian Fuentes? Methinks he's a step down.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS: With its stockpiled talent and big payroll, how come this team underachieves every single year? Must be the L.A. sunshine. Manny Ramirez will be a distraction; it's just a matter of whether it hurts the team. Also Joe Torre may finally have lost his mojo with all that off-season book business. All that notwithstanding, the Dodgers cruise. If the definition of cruise is a high 80s, low 90s-win year good enough to win division and get eliminated in early October.

SAN DIEGO PADRES: The '08 version lost 99 games after the '07 version came within one out of making the postseason. The Greg Maddux experiment was a bust. Now the Padres are auditioning young arms and hoping to rebuild. What should you look for in the 09 version? How about trade deadline moves ... for example, Wayward O could see Brian Giles moving to a contender.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: Can they be terrible again given their talented pitching staff? Nope. They should improve ... to third place. Fred Lewis, their young LF, doesn't get the attention that Lincecum and Cain get but he had a very nice '08 and will be a key for the offense.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Dodgers
Diamondbacks*
Giants
Rockies
Padres

* wild card contender