Friday, March 12, 2010

2kX divisiOnal preview - NL East

Atlanta Braves: Lost Javier Vasquez, who went to Yankees, but Tim Hudson, who basically missed 2009, is back and looking sharp. Hudson joins talented young duo of Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson as well as veteran Derek Lowe on a team that many see as a sleeper pick for a playoff run. Can left fielder Melky Cabrera and right fielder Matt Diaz drive offense? Between them only something like 22 stolen bases all of last year. Closer Billy Wagner looks to revive career.

Florida Marlins: They won 87 games last year and are bringing back same team plus a couple of well-chronicled groin injuries. I'm not sure if they're better than Braves in pitching department, but they have a better offense on paper. Will Hayden Penn make club? Rarely does one hear the terms "veteran pitcher" and "out of options" in same sentence. Wayward O sees the Fish swimming in middle of the proverbial bait ball.

New York Mets: Outfield is a smidge better this year with Jason Bay and Jeff Francoeur replacing Gary Sheffield and Ryan Church. Early reports are that Johan Santana is going to be ready to lead rotation all year. But rest of rotation is a bit junky, frankly. [Hey. Write a letter. It's true!] If Bay gets on wrong side of fans and Reyes' big years are behind him, things could get pretty ugly at Citifield. That said, there's enough talent for Amazin's to be to be surprising as well. Very tough call. Can Francisco Rodriguez get his ERA below 3 again? If K-Rod ERAs below 2.5 and saves 40+ games then Mets will be in running. Yes, Blog is using "ERAs" as verb. Deal with it.

Philadelpia Phillies: Class of division upgraded rotation by dealing Cliff Lee and landing Roy Halladay. Marginal upgrade at third base with Placido Polanco replacing Pedro Feliz. Can they win 100 games? Even odds. Bonus Question: How many more wins does Jamie Moyer need to solidify his HoF resume? Answer: 12. Phillies will kick themselves for dealing Lee if injury bug hits rote.

Washington Nationals: Probably last place again but Wayward O sees them pushing win total into high 60s. Gnarts could finish ahead of Mets if things fall apart again in Queens, N.Y. Expectations are high for Elijah Dukes, who is reported to have a better outlook after last year's demotion to AAA. How many starts will Stephen Strasburg get with the big club this year? Over / under probably about 8.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Phillies
Braves *
Marlins
Mets
Nationals

* wild card contender

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Thursday, March 11, 2010

2kX divisiOnal preview - AL East

This is going to be hard on you, kid. But trust Wayward O, it's going to be even harder on Wayward O:

Baltimore Orioles: Have stockpiled tons of talent and they're trying to bring it to bear. But hopes of a surprise challenge to Boston and New York are slim for 2010, especially with creeping worries that All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts may face lingering back issues. Just how good are Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz? Very good, Wayward O thinks. There's no reason why the O's couldn't mug somebody this year but if you're making bet, make sure you get odds. Manager Dave Trembley must prove himself by keeping Team focused through September and cutting down on baserunning blunders.

Boston Red Sox: Able hands at every offensive position. A top-notch starting five. Strong bullpen. Is David Ortiz on wane? Even if he is, it hardly matters. Victor Martinez can DH. So could Marco Scutaro. So could Bill Hall. Bonus Question: Why is Hall even on this team? Mike Cameron may have trouble adjusting to weirdly angled Fenway center field -- hardly what you'd call a reason for Sox fans to lay awake at night worrying.

New York Yankees: They have some age problems looming with Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and possibly even the ageless Mariano Rivera. But it's not clear whether 2010 will be the year in which this really becomes an issue. Bombers have better pitching staff than Red Sox, amazingly, but in Wayward O's opinion an ever-so-slightly less potent offense (on paper, anyway). Will Alex Rodriguez' off-field issues distract the club? Doubtful.

Tampa Bay Rays: This could be last year for Rays to show 2008 World Series berth wasn't fluke. They're bringing back four of five starters, minus Scott Kazmir. They're bringing back entire offense. But next year Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena could be gone. Entire team could be gone if city can't muster up stronger attendance. Can they hang with the Yankees and Sox? Not really. 2008 was kind of flukey, dawg.

Toronto Blue Jays: The departure of Roy Halladay has left this team without its standard. The Jays "went for it" two years ago, but had to fire their manager mid-season. They're still paying the price for the B.J. Ryan signing and other moves. Is Brandon Morrow going to make it as a starter? The Jays had better hope so. If not they're going to be beyond irrelevant.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Red Sox / Yankees
Os
Rays
Jays


* probably both heading for playoffs

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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

2kX divisiOnal preview - NL Central

Cincinnati Reds: Highly touted two years ago, right fielder Jay Bruce says his goal for 2010 is to get his offense going and make Reds better. He'll have an even younger teammate in Drew Stubbs playing center. Bruce might be able to fly under radar with arrival of media phenom Aroldis Chapman, who might lead talented rotation including Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Aaron Harang. Additions of Scott Rolen and Orlando Cabrera on left side of infield make for your "veteran presence." Not a bad team overall, but it's really all about Aroldis this year. Is he real deal? No idea ... Wayward O is pencilling in Reds for middle of pack.

Chicago Cubs: Is Alfonso Soriano going to stink again this year? That pretty much sums up Cubs' prospects. Team GM Jim Hendry threw former Cub Milton Bradley under bus this week, saying he brought entire team down in 2009. If that's the case then let's see Milton-free Cubs win division.

Houston Astros: They have new manager, new addition to starting rotation in Bud Norris, an ace trying to get healthy in Roy Oswalt, no named closer as of yet and an offense dependent upon aging Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. So, they're going to stink? Yeah. They're going to stink. Actually, "stink" might be a strong word. And if Oswalt and Berkman can reclaim past form maybe they'll be surprising.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Crew got (a little) younger and added Randy Wolf to a starting rotation that features Yovani Gallardo, who many believe is on track for a breakout 2010. If the "kids" -- Casey McGehee and Alcides Escobar -- on the left side of infield can hit .300, as they each did in limited work last year, Brewers will have a very potent offense. Playoffs? If they keep it loose, sure.

Pittsburgh Pirates: When you talk your way off Mets and then stink at Nationals, there's really only one place left to go. That's why you'll find Lastings Milledge playing the outfield for Buckos this year. Pirates are trying to get better where they can. Is center fielder Andrew McCutchen a star? He might be. Brendan Donnelly in bullpen and Aki Iwamura in infield are talented additions. Heck, if things get bad enough in Houston, Pirates could end up outside of cellar for once.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carpenter and Wainwright and pray for rain, right? Wayward O sees Mark McGwire sucking up much of spotlight in St. Louie this summer. Albert Pujols is mad good. So is Matt Holliday. Over all Wayward O thinks Cubs have more talent. But Wayward O says this every year and every year Cardinals outplay them.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Cardinals
Cubs *
Brewers *
Reds
Astros
Pirates

* wild card contenders

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2kX divisiOnal preview - AL Central

Chicago White Sox: Have a great starting five with addition of Jake Peavy and Freddy Garcia. A healthy Alex Rios should be plus for offense. On paper this team really does look like a World Series contender, with strength at every position and a solid bench to boot, although they may have a problem at closer if the '08 vintage Bobby Jenks doesn't return. Between Ozzie Guillen, A.J. Pierzynski, GM Ken Williams, Rios and the rest, are there too many mouths?

Cleveland Indians: Jake Westbrook, Tribe's purported young ace, is pitching on tenterhooks this spring, hoping his Tommy John doesn't come apart. After a huge 2007, number two starter Fausto Carmona has seen his ERA balloon to about 6 over last two years. Closer Kerry Wood is just trying to hang on to his career at this point. Do they have any reasonable shot at postseason? Not really. Offense, not to mention pitching staff, will suffer without Victor Martinez.

Detroit Tigers: Max Scherzer has a hell of a lot of talent and joins a potentially devastating rotation led by Justin Verlander and augmented by probable return of healthy Jeremy Bonderman. With Johnny Damon penciled in for left field, how many games will Ryan Raburn get into? Raburn had a wonderful year in 2009 and is as solid a fourth outfielder as there is in baseball. D-town is excited about Austin Jackson, penciled in for center field, but he may be a little young to lead Tigers to a division title.

Kansas City Royals: Wayward O put too much pressure on Royals last year, predicting a division win and getting a basement finish for his trouble. Not this year. Nope. Ol' powder blue is back to mediocrity. Most positive development? Same starting five coming back and Joakim Soria might become a big star at closer.

Minnesota Twins: Ooooooh shnikey! Joe Nathan has a torn ligament in his elbow. That is very big deal. They say he's going to rest and strengthen for a couple weeks and try to avoid surgery but we all know ligaments don't just heal. You still got to get a quack to cut you open and fix those things. 47 saves in 2009 with a 2.10 ERA. Can you say that without Nathan the Twins are in trouble? Yes. I would say so, especially with talented Tigers and ChiSox lurking. There really is no immediate closer answer currently on Twins roster.

Predicted Order of Finish:
White Sox
Tigers*
Twins
Royals
Indians

* wild card contender

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Monday, March 8, 2010

2kX divisiOnal preview - NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: Upgraded offense by bringing in Adam LaRoche to play first base. Probably downgraded a little at second base after trading Felipe Lopez at deadline and bringing in Kelly Johnson from Atlanta after season. Budget-minded Dbacks' season depends on whether third baseman Mark Reynolds can repeat monster 2009 (44 HR, 102 RBI -- really only good enough for 20th in MVP ballot?) and whether Brandon Webb's comeback from surgery is successful. What the heck is Valley Fever?!? Note to self: Avoid this ailment.

Colorado Rockies: Had five starters post winning records on way to playoffs last year. Can returning Jeff Francis replace departure to Nationals of Jason Marquis? Rocks' potent offense returns pretty much as it was last year, led by Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki. Wayward O sees a seasoned team primed for a division win.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Amid owner's divorce court battle and revelations his sons are on Dodger payroll to tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars, doing nothing, even as team is jacking up ticket prices, phantom injuries already are popping up in spring training. Catcher has a "groin pull." Third baseman has a "strained rib cage." Puhleeze. Can they stay out of tank? Not likely. Also they will miss Randy Wolf, who departed for Milwaukee. L.A. Dodgers are looking at a lost season and Manny Ramirez might be had at deadline.

San Diego Padres: Jake Peavy left for White Sox and Adrian Gonzalez likely will be gone by deadline. Kevin Kouzmanoff is gone. They did bring in John Garland to play role presumably similar to Kevin Millwood's perceived role for Baltimore Orioles - shoring up young rote. Can they finish ahead of L.A.? Probably not because L.A. has talent. The Padres are bad and they appear to be getting worse.

San Francisco Giants: Biggest barrier to Diamondbacks' hopes of sneaking into Wild Card chase is going to be Giants' pursuit of same. Aubrey Huff looks like an upgrade at first base over Travis Ishikawa. Mark DeRosa appears to be an upgrade over young Fred Lewis, who failed to establish himself as the left fielder after a weak 2009 and is scrapping to make big club this year. Will Giants be players in trade market? Yeah. For example, Wayward O could see Manny Ramirez moving to S.F. at deadline.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Rockies
Giants *
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Padres


* wild card contender

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Sunday, March 7, 2010

2kX divisiOnal preview - AL West

Wayward O can't preview changes to blog template and soon will be forced to ditch blogger altogether. Not great timing because this is big time of year for baseball. Might as well get started on divisiOnal previews a bit early; usually blog would wait an additional two weeks or so in order to get more Spring hints.

Starting off in the AL West this year for no particular reason. Baseball has seen fit to unfairly grant teams in division 25 per cent shot at playoffs each year. But AL West also is division that added more overall talent than any other save arguably the monied, free-agent hungry AL East.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Appear at first glance to have treaded water over offseason, but roster shows core talent remains and team by no means has seen rotation come apart with departure of John Lackey. Will new third baseman Brandon Wood be as impressive as fellow prospects-turned-stars Howie Kendrick and Eric Aybar? Last year Angels barely missed departure of Mark Teixeira as Kendry Morales put up huge season. Wayward O sees same scenario playing out this year -- look for well-managed Angels to barely miss departures of Lackey and Chone Figgins and chug their way to 90+ win season.

Oakland As: Have plugged three veterans -- third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, center fielder Coco Crisp and top starter Ben Sheets -- into youth equation that wound up in last place with a respectable 75 wins in 2009. If Crisp plays all year and stays healthy, Sheets stays healthy too and Crushin' Russian's OBP doesn't fall further in ballpark where foul balls go to die, maybe As make some noise. Side note: Wayward O finds this Team's prospects especially difficult to predict year-in, year-out. Could be the Green Unis. Not sure. Is young Trevor Cahill a budding Zack Greinke? Arguably comparable righties but Cahill's ERA would need to take a comparable drop off proverbial cliff.

Seattle Mariners: Addition of Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins made big news over winter. Can you call them 'chiq pick' when everyone is picking them? Wayward O would like to point out that Ms are relying on two of baseball's notorious head cases -- Erik Bedard and Milton Bradley -- to drive them into postseason. Another key to Ms season is righty Ian Snell, who is something of a head case himself. If Snell can put his post-Pittsburgh stress disorder behind him and anchor 3-spot in Seattle rote until Bedard is ready, Mariners could be a force. It's a near-certainly Mariners will trade for a power bat at some point. Wayward O goes along with those penciling Ms into playoffs but has also purchased eraser.

Texas Rangers: Core of Ranger offense rests on shoulders of Vladimir Guerrerro and Josh Hamilton, both of whom are coming off injury plagued, down years. Vlad said to be healthy; Hamilton not so much. Meanwhile Rangers are excited about starting rotation! So let me get this straight, Texas has pitching but not enough hitting? That's how it looks from here. Weird. Actually they might not have enough pitching either.


Predicted Order of Finish:
Mariners
Angels*
Rangers
As

* wild card contender

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hOme