happy hallOween

Looks like good ol' Sammy Perlozzo found costume!


Image via FOX
Hey Sammy -- DON'T PULL GUTHRIE, OK?

Nevermind....

If Wayward O had his druthers, which he does not ... have ... he'd go as this guy:


Image via MASN

Or maybe a Memlo Hobo.

certainty vs. cOntingency

Mighta Wayward O shoulda given Dodgers certainty point for set-up man, who chalked up a .65 ERA in 30 appearances post-trade and a 1.70 for year? And which set-up man figured mightly in Blues' win over RedBirds? Or at very least awarded omnibus "rest of staff" certainty point for L.A.?

Probably. That would have made L.A. favorite over St. Louis Cards given better regular-season record.

So .... Wayward O's bad.

Then again, that's October baseball -- especially in first round. And there's nuttin' nobody is going to do about stuff like this:


Image via MLB.com
And this:


Image via Boston.com
Boston-Angels series also reminds Wayward O ... should there be some codified certainty point for having home field for first two games of a five-game, first-round series? This year home-field teams swept divisional series, losing only one of eight home games at series' outsets.

Have to look at entire sweep of divisional series to be sure '09 wasn't fluke.

Well dear reader, this is by way of saying: Wayward O will continue to massage turkey until it's as juicy and delicious as possible. But overall, Blog is still quite pleased with System.

ranking the playOffs, year 3

If you are unfamiliar with Wayward O's system for seeding MLB Playoffs, Wayward O recommends having a look at last year's entry, which explains system. Year one's rankings predicted World Series matchup and outcome with uncanny precision; year two did not result in a predictive World Series Matchup.

On to Year Three!

Going team-by-team, we uncovered a total of 22 certainty points.

That number was subtracted from 100 percent and remainder -- 78 percent -- was doled evenly as baseline score for each October team. This means certainty baseline for each playoff team is 9.75% (like last year).

Here's how Wayward O doles out 2009 certainty points:

Angels: (2) Morales, offense ... 9.75% + 2% = 11.75%
Cardinals: (4) Pujols, Wainright, Carpenter, Franklin ... 9.75% + 4% = 13.75%
Dodgers: (3) Ramirez*, Broxton, Torre ... 9.75% + 3% = 12.75%
Phillies: (1) offense ... 9.75% + 1% = 10.75%
Red Sox: (3) 54+ home wins, offense, Jonathan Papelbon ... 9.75% + 3% = 12.75%
Rockies: (1) Coors Field ... 9.75% + 1% = 10.75%
Tigers: (1) Miguel Cabrera ... 9.75% + 1% = 10.75%**
Twins: (3) Morneau, Nathan, Metrodome ... 9.75% + 3% = 12.75%
Yankees: (5) Teixeira, offense, Rivera, rotation, 54+ home wins ... 9.75% + 5% = 14.75%

(Right now at 8:07 p.m. Eastern Wayward O is waiting on result of Tigers at Twins play-in game. So, while we have time, maybe you are wondering how many certainty points Team would have had this year. This answer is zero, though George Sherill, were he still on Team, would have projected to a certainty point with high saves total and sub-3 ERA.)

9:48 p.m. EDT, OK, sorry Tigers. Sorry Aubrey Huff. You're out.

So here are the raw seedings:

1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3,4,5 tie) Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins
6) Angels
7,8 tie) Phillies, Rockies

Here are adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:

1) Yankees
2) Cardinals
3) Red Sox
4) Dodgers (same record as Red Sox, but worse home record)
5) Twins
6) Angels
7) Phillies
8) Rockies

Here are your divsion series winners, based on this formula:

Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox and Phillies

And your World Series outcome:

Yankees over Cardinals

Keep in mind this system isn't necessary supposed to pick locks. It is supposed to be an acknowledgement that October baseball is a bit random while still respecting key factors that could affect outcome of playoffs.

* projects to a certainty point for 162-game season

** eliminated in 1-game play-in


How do you earn a certainty point?

On offense you have to have a minimum .295 BA, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs (with minor exceptions granted in the average category if other stats are there -- such as Mark Teixeira this year).

If you are a pitcher you must have a sub 3.00 ERA and a +10 win total or a high saves total.

An offense or starting staff can also earn a certainty point en masse if overall performance markedly exceeds the league norm.

A team can earn a certainty point if it has 54 or more home wins for season or if there is a tangible home field advantage for a team's home park (such as the Twins, who as Wayward O types this are in extra with Tigers.)

Managers, too, can earn a certainty point for their team. Said manager must have demonstrated an ability to help a team succeed based solely on his presence. This is by far the most subjective and possibly controversial category in with a certainty point can be earned. This year one manager, Joe Torre, qualified.

grading the predictiOns

It is exceedingly weird that October is here and playoffs are not. As Wayward O's fourteen readers know, Wayward O makes very concrete and non-wishy washy playoff predictions in March. Here's how Blog did this year:

AL East: We said Yankees would "pile up the wins" and Boston would finish second and be in Wild Card mix. Check. And Check. Yankees did not exactly sneak up on anybody but a lot of folks were wary about how good they would be. Wayward O was not. Blog also correctly said Tampa Bay would fade and finish third. We picked the Blue Jays for last but noted they are "probably better than" Team, who we generously picked to finish fourth. Blog was far too generous in allowing Team a chance to finish at .500 but, aside from this essentially irrelevant detail, we lined up division with precision. Grade: A

AL Center: Only thing that doesn't stink about Site's predictions for this division is Site picked Twins to finish second. And even that isn't set in stone as of yet. Note to KC Royals: We kind of knew you were going to stink but we took a flyer based on previous improvements last couple of seasons and gave you a chance. Don't look for such magnanimity again from Wayward O! Look for ignOminity! Further compounding futility of Blog's picks is Tigers' return to playoff contention, which Site did not augur for some stultifying reason. They were supposed to do that last year. Grade: Flunk

AL West: Blog liked Angels to win division. Checkity. That counts for something. But Blog gave As way too much credit for off-season moves. Heck, Matt Holliday isn't even there anymore is he? Or something. We were right, however, that future of As has been distraction and attendance has suffered. We had Seattle and Texas bottom-feeding and those two made nice showings. As of press time, three of four AL West teams were on track to finish above .500 mark. When was the last time that happened? Grade: C

NL East: Blog picked Mets to win, but Mets Blog picked did not actually take field. So. That's a sort of a pass, EXCEPT Blog foresaw big Mets injuries in 2008 but did not repeat prediction for 2009. So really kind of a mild fail, in a weird, metaphysical way. Possible worlds and what-not. Blog picked Phillies to finish second so it stands to reason that Phillies would Phind selves in first with Mets as non-factor. Blog had Marlins and Braves in middle of pack -- right where they are -- and Nats bringing up the rear. Grade: B

NL Center: Like AL Center prognostications, Blog took some risks here. Blog said Cubs would finish first and liked Reds and Cardinals to contend for Wild Card. So -- bad. However, Blog did accurately predict 2008 October darlings Milwaukee would fade down stretch. Blog also saw Astros underperforming. And Pirates in basement. Could have been worse but Blog can't give self pass for again over-predicting Cubs and underpredicting Cards. Grade: D

NL West: Blog liked Dodgers to walk away with division. Which they did until they kind of took foot off gas pedal in recent weeks. Blog predicted Giants would improve. Figuring they'd keep their staff on field and find a bat, Blog saw Diamondbacks contending for a Wild Card. Diamondbacks have in fact been quite bad (they did lose Brandon Webb for season) and have not shown ability to keep key pieces of puzzle together. Blog did NOT foresee another Rocky Mountain playoff high. Grade: C+

PLAYOFF BERTHS: Blog accurately picked three of six division winners -- Yankees, Dodgers and Angels -- and made accurate allowance for one 2009 Wild Card team. Blog did NOT have Colorado in mix. Blog made some canny observations about season but also made some wild swings that did not connect. Overall Grade ...... you tell Wayward O in comments.

philadelphia freedOm

well it's hard not to be happy for happy world champion philadelphia philles and especially future hall of fame pitcher jamie moyer for whom ring very possibly is ticket to cooperstown.

not to mention the excellent jimmy rollins, 2007 mvp, who really gets credit for bringing pride back to sad franchise.

not to mention the city itself, which is free from 28-year title drought despite hosting four major league sports clubs.

however, even in last innings of waning fall classic, level of play remained disappointing if you ask wayward O. aki iwamura needs to catch that pop fly. and jason werth, asleep at first again, lucked out when he made it to second after getting picked off. there were too many similar examples and wayward O on many occasions wondered what these two squads were doing here.

no matter. friends ..... the lost season is over! and now team from baltimore must re-embark on quest.

the quest for october.

when our young, talented stars refuse to lose and when our organization shows the courage to make team better where it must, then we too will have our shot at glory. not a mOment before.

wOrthless

wayward O hates to say it. wayward O really does. but this world series .... uh ... sucks.

the phillies' eighth was debaculous.

utley's strikeout was minor league caliber.

werth .... is most terrible baseball player wayward O has ever seen play baseball in october. jason werth is a terrible baseball player. he can't hit. he can't run. he can't field and he can't throw.

howard ... ate too many cheesesteaks or something? terrible. what is he doing waving at these curveballs? he is useless because he has no desire to run the bases. all he wants to do is swing for the fences. that can be dealt with.

just not good baseball.

and in top eighth phillies let b.j. upton essentially run bases with no real opposition. what was that?

the philadelphia philles can't even protect their house? well game isn't over yet but they squandered 3-run lead.

1:50 a.m. update: well phillies "protected" their house. but only because rays are even more terrible than phillies.

it's a nO-win situation

fox's world series music is off the mark. it is too pageantified. they should spice it up a little. make it more funky.

yahhhh di di dahhhhhh, waahh wa wa waaaahhhh.

also they should start the game at 8 p.m. i keep falling asleep in the 5th inning.

i'd much rather fall asleep in the 7th or 8th.

i heard there was a play when shane victorino swung feet-first from the "b-ring" on the roof of the trop to catch a line drive. true?

phillies v. rays. either way, wayward O feels cheated. if phillies win, insufferable city becomes even worse. if rays win then entire AL East cashes in on title glory since team last made it there sixty billion years ago.

quick Observation

no MLB team from florida has ever lost a playoff series.

thank you and have nice day.

did we Over-rate the cubs?

well the certainty points system seems again to have done its job, at least so far, predicting three of four teams to advance out of baseball's division series.

perhaps the system over-rated the cubs, who got shtoonked by the dodgers in three straight.

did we give them a point too many for wrigley field? or a point too many for sweet lou?

nah. the cubs were 55-26 at wrigley this summer. that's tampa-like and deserves a certainty point, the team's october home futility notwithstanding.

and sweet lou is the bill parcells of baseball ... he can turn a team around because people play for him.

moreover, even minus two certainty points the cubs would have had more certainty points than the dodgers.

so we conclude, per the system, that the terrible randonmess of octOber -- not to mention the fearsome bat of manny ramirez -- was the over-riding factor in the cubs demise...

ranking the playOffs, year 2

Last year Wayward O's patented certainty points system accurately predicted Red Sox v. Rockies World Series and its outcome. So this year, we'll try it again.

But keep in mind the system is not necessarily supposed to accurately pick the post-season; rather it's designed to acknowledge the randomness of October and hedge that randomness ever so slightly, which it does.

There's one major change this year. Last year we doled out the baseline points first, giving each team a 10% base chance of winning; this year we doled out the certainty points first, then calculated the baseline.

Going team-by-team, we uncovered a total of 22 certainty points.

That number was subtracted from 100 percent and the remainder -- 78 -- was doled evenly as the baseline score for each October team. This means certainty baseline is slightly lower for each team -- 9.75% -- than it was last year.

Calculating it that way removed the arbitrary nature of the baseline score, which arbitrary nature bothered Wayward O last year.

"Certainty points" go to teams with:
a) certified money pitchers (1% per)
b) position players capable of taking over a game (1% per)
c) a batting lineup or pitching rote that exceeds the norm (1%)
d) manager capable of influencing an outcome (1 %)
e) tangible home-field or other stated advantage (1%) *

Here's how Wayward O doles out the 2008 certainty points:
Angels: (4) Guerrerro, Scioscia, F. Rodriguez, rotation ... 9.75%+4% =13.75%
Brewers: (2) offense, Sabathia .... 9.75%+2%=11.75%
Cubs: (4) Dempster, offense, Piniella, Wrigley .... 9.75%+4% =13.75%
Dodgers: (1) M. Ramirez .... 9.75%+1%=10.75%
Phillies: (3) Utley, rest of offense, Lidge .... 9.75%+3%=12.75%
Rays: (2) offense, the Trop .... 9.75%+2%=11.75%
Red Sox: (5) Youkilis, rest of offense, Fenway, Matzusaka, Papelbon .... 9.75%+5%=14.75%
Twins: (3) Morneau, Dome, Nathan .... 9.75%+3%=12.75% **
White Sox: (1) Jenks .... 9.75%+1%=10.75%

So here are the raw seedings:
1) Red Sox
2,3 tie) Angels, Cubs
4) Phillies
5,6 tie) Brewers, Rays
7,8 tie) Dodgers, White Sox

Here are the adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:

1) Red Sox
2) Angels
3) Cubs
4) Phillies
5) Rays
6) Brewers
7) White Sox
8) Dodgers

Here are your division series winners, based on this formula:
Red Sox
Rays
Cubs
Phillies

and here is your (repeat) world series winner, based on this formula:
Red Sox (over Cubs)

please place your bets accordingly.

*How do you earn a certainty point?

On offense you have to have a minimum .295 BA, 30 HRs and 100 RBIs (with tiny exceptions to the average category if other stats are there -- such as Chase Utley this year).

If you are a pitcher you must have a sub 3.00 ERA and a +10 win total or a high saves total (this year Sabathia is an exception with a +7 win total but an 11-2 record since moving to Milwaukee).

If you are a manager you must have demonstrated an ability to turn a team around based solely on your presence.

A few ballparks earn certainty points based on widely acknowledged advantages conferred to the home team. (The Trop has been a house of horrors for visiting teams this year so it was added though it's a bit of an exception given the Rays' futility until this year.)

An offense or starting staff can also earn a certainty point en masse if overall performance broadly exceeds the league norm.

(Wayward O was very tempted to give the Red Sox an extra certainty point for Ortiz but did not because his average slipped to an earthly .264. Anyway, it wouldn't have affected the overall rankings.)

** We did the Twins certainty points b/c of the play-in, which isn't even over yet, but we mistakenly published too early. Chisox currently lead 1-0 in the ninth. Let's hope this isn't a curse in the making. 9:57 p.m. ET update ... Chisox advance.

red sOx win

you saw that coming, dint ya? if not, then (in parlance of david letterman) you might be one of them "dumb guys" people talk about! wow was that a shtoonking. wayward O isn't sure if rockies even knew what they were up against. clint hurdle managed poorly but it probably wouldn't have mattered even if he'd run his team with a sense of urgency.

rockies are so fraudulent, not even mascot is real deal. to wit:

REAL DINGER


FAKE DINGER


dinger the dino, probably drunk, pops a hammy on coors field dugout while dinger the rivercat busts out the classic jamzzz! the colorado rockies are definitely buggin'.

changing subject slightly -- it was very silly to see Alex Rodriguez' mug on the TV show as Red Sox were on cusp of winning WORLD SERIES. yes. wayward O imagines scott boras engineered all of it with crisp timing. leave voice mail on cashman's phone. call ken rosenthal next. give ken big scoop for broadcast. get more publicity for very famous baseball player!!

does everyone remember how kenny boy used to work at Baltimore Sun? and how he had BIG DREAMZ of scoops during world series? he must feel like a MAN IN FULL this quiet tuesday. but wayward O still thinks it was silly. wayward O wonders if ROCK will follow in K.R.'s footsteps.

and then during postgame scrum -- was it fox's own chris myers? -- somebody asked red sox owner john henry -- he of the leather glove held in the air like a fascistic fisticuff -- so what about a-rod? but john henry is a nice man, or so is the image he cultivates, and he said, 'we're enjoying a championship right now.' or something to that effect. oh sure!

meanwhile, a-rod continues to gulp all available oxygen ... for example check out mlb trade rumors. i mean how many a-rod stories can you write?? he's the britney sprears of MLB. nobody even reads about RENTERIA TRADE ... see below.

and wayward O thinks big offseason baseball story is CROP of CENTER FIELDERS ripe for signing shiny spanking new free agent contracts...

andruw jones, corey patterson (yes, indeed sir!), aaron rowand and torii hunter all are likely to be on merry-go-round! where she stops, nobody knOws ...

jones, once thought to be among the top four or five players in MLB, put together a hideous 2007 on offense (please don't mention steroids). patterson has never been known as a legit power threat (he once was known as potential power threat) but he is absolute vaccuum cleaner in center and he gets on and steals bases. rowand had career year in phillydelfia and one would think he'd stay but who knows? and hunter merely drove in 107 runs this year and may be premier center fielder in baseball.

if a-rod is worth $30 million per year -- which he's probably not but nevertheless if -- then what's torii worth? wayward O isn't sure what andruw jones is worth, either, but apparently braves are fully embracing youth movement; they've already traded edgar renteria to detroit for two prospects, including a guy who might be the next andruw jones in the ATL.

will leave you with following THOUGHT: wayward O has mentioned this too many times but he remains stunned by the accuracy of his new "certainty points" playoff ranking system.

you're not, you're not .... you're not good

what should one expect when the top seed in the NL is the No. 5 seed overall?

but last night when matt holliday got caught off first base to end the 8th inning ... well that was just unappreciated.

Caught! Can I get a witness?

not just nicked ... BUSTED.

matt hit .340 with 137 ribs and 36 HRs. guess how many stolen bases he had?

eleven.

so ... a situational stealer. by "situational" wayward O means, "once every two weeks when the moon is at just the right angle or on a cheap double-steal."

terrible to get hung up like that. reminds me of Orioles Magic. and we've seen enough of that for one year.

C'MON ROCKIES! Yeeshus. wayward O thinks it's kind of funny and endearing how the rockies skipper writes his thoughts down on a note pad each time one of his players gets pwned.

somebody head over to office depot. clint's going to need some more notebooks and pencils.

anyway, after that holliday play wayward O went night-night, hoping for a morning surprise regarding 9th inning.

not bloody likely.

maybe a change of scenery will help the colorado rockies get back into contention over the weekend.

not that wayward O is rooting for da rox; more like rooting for a bit of drama in the world series.

as for the david ortiz situation ... the answer is: sit him and give him an at-bat for the pitcher when daisuke matsuzaka gets into trouble, which will be in the third inning saturday, when he coughs up a chilly four-spot.

tOp seeds advance

wayward O watched boston defeat cleveland last night with great interest. most of baltimore diaspora clearly was rooting for tribe, but wayward O watched impassively.

nor would wayward O call the series outcome a "great comeback." it's not really comparable to the 04 ALCS for example, which continues to set the all-time bar for comebacks. indians needed to stop red sox in either game 5 or 6; and couldn't do so. boston took down fausto carmona -- maybe the biggest pitching surprise in all of baseball this year -- and once that was done the sox had a bead on the series win with their deeper pitching.

here are some notes about the game:

-- casey blake had a terrible game both at bat and in the field. why didn't he bunt with one out and runners on the corners in the 7th? if he can do that correctly, indians have a tie game with a man on 2nd and their leadoff hitter coming up. everyone will talk about the play before, where kenny lofton was held up by third base coach joel skinner. the announcers were sanguine about how lofton would have scored but wayward O isn't so sure. blake also had a terrible night in the field, booting a grounder and getting in jhonny peralta's way on a pop fly. also, shouldn't blake have fielded kevin youkilis' ball down the third base line that went for a double earlier?

tough night at the office
click pic for more photos from sportsline

-- in the first inning, jake westbrook looked terrified. he bent but did not break and when he finally settled down, the indians could not capitalize. daisuke matzusaka looked good -- good -- not great. take it easy, boston fans, with the dice-k coronations

-- all of boston's players seemed to be relaxed and playing their game; if they bring a similar attitude toward the world series, they should be able to overcome what they're about to face in colorado: three games in arctic conditions

-- all the millionaires in that boston clubhouse and they can't do better than bud lite? yeesh. that beer is hideous. pabst is far more drinkable and guzzle-able and delicious. oh wait. even the beer they drink is sponsored. sad

-- wayward O's "certainty points" playoff formula seems to have correctly predicted the world series contenders. boston, the top seed overall, advanced, as did colorado, the no. 5 seed overall and top NL seed. of course, the entire concept of the "certainty points" theory is that the mlb playoffs are very uncertain; but it was nice to have some predictive success on the first go

-- as for predicting a world series winner. it's unpickable. it's boston's star-studded roster and talented kids vs. colorado's even more talented kids and mojo. and the weather

sO far

wayward O has watched baseball playoffs so far with much interest. however here in BIG APPLE we're inundated with JOE TORRE DRAMA and also A-ROD SAGA. want to see yankee fan sweat? just say with a big ol' smile, "ahhh ... the mattingly years."

most amazing person in playoffs is boston red sox left fielder MANUEL RAMIREZ. manuel is quite a character. he does not care if boston loses and it's not just idle talk. he does not care so thoroughly that he cannot be bothered to run past first base on a 400-foot ball off outfield wall in cleveland. nor can he be bothered to play defense. nor will he slide. and yet his wily brand of not caring seems to stoke other red sox with motivation. in addition, red sox have JOSH BECKETT who is the money-est pitcher in MLB right now.

Who's on first? Manny!

even tim mccarver got to shout.

then there are the seemingly DESTONIUS colorado rockies, keyed by big names such as holliday, tulowitzki, spilborghs and torrealba. when wayward O says "big names," what he means is, "long names." wayward O wonders though if FALL CLASSIC will be WINTER WONDERLAND with big ol big ol sierra clipper heading east AS WAYWARD O TYPES THIS.

meanwhile, cleveland indians are a nice baseball bunch. they hit. they field. they pitch and they play hard. they eat their greens and always call home on mother's day. how can you not root for tribe to bring home first world series ring since 1948? you can't... nor can you IGNORE SIMILARITIES between 07 and 97 indians, as roar from 34 adroitly observes.

but wayward O wishes tribe had shtoonked the bostonshteins whilst still on home field because he fears fenway will be site of WEDGE's LAST STAND -- for this year, anyway.

on an Os related note, wayward O has been visiting new online buddy .... the birds of prey forum. if between t.w.O, roch, the l.c., etc., you STILL HAVEN'T HAD FILL OF ORIOLES PAIN, the b.o.p. forum is for you, friend.

ranking the playOffs

wayward O will rank the playoff seeds based on the following formula: each of the eight teams involved has at least a 10% chance at the outset of winning the world series; so 80% of world series uncertainty is tied up at the outset. the remaining 20% will be alotted in the form of "certainty points" on a point-by-point basis to teams with one or more:

a) certified money pitchers (1% per)
b) position players capable of taking over a game (1% per) *
c) manager capable of dominating an outcome (1 %)
d) tangible home-field or other stated advantages (1%)

here's how wayward O doles out the added points:

angels: 10% + lackey 1% + escobar 1% + guerrerro 1%
cubs: 10% + soriano 1% + piniella 1%
diamondbacks: 10% + brandon webb + 1%
indians: 10% + sabathia 1% + best overall lineup 1%
phillies: 10% + rollins 1%
red sox: 10% + ortiz 1% + ramirez 1% + beckett 1% + fenway 1% + rest of lineup 1%
rockies: 10% + holliday 1% + coors field 1%
yankees: 10% + rodriguez 1% + rest of lineup 1% + yankee stadium 1 %

here are the raw seedings:
1) boston 15%
2, 3 - tie) yankees, angels 13%
4, 5, 6 - tie) cubs, indians, rockies 12%
7, 8 - tie ) phillies, diamondbacks 11%

and here are the adjusted seedings, using regular season records as tiebreakers for raw seedings above:
1) boston
2) angels
3) yankees
4) indians
5) rockies
6) cubs
7) diamondbacks
8) phillies

here are your division series winners, based on this formula:
boston,
new york,
chicago,
colorado.

here is your world series winner, based on this formula:
boston

please place your bets accordingly.

* player must have a league-top batting average, minimum .295 and power to boot to earn a standout percentage point